
Yes, it is still a very strong Seller's Market. Much to the
credit of extremely low interest rates, the declining energy prices
and lower tax rates resulting in more disposable income. The threat
of terrorism still looms and will for many years to come. The fears
engendered by the Enron/Anderson scandal are real but maybe limited
in time and scope. The information technology business is showing
signs of life but still has a tough road ahead. Optimism remains
strong about employment stabilization, commodity price increases
and low inflation.
Higher sales prices are being achieved as a result of very low
inventory. Although interest rates are very low, the loan to value
(amount of the loan received, often referred to as LTV) is averaging
between 40 to 60% of the purchase price which means the buyer
must have a 40 to 60% down payment. Some buyers are even paying
all cash and then shopping for a loan at the best rate after purchasing
a property. Gross Rent Multipliers (GRM) can vary greatly depending
upon location and annual gross income. Rents that are at true
market levels will sell on a GRM of 9 to 12 times. In the Pico
Corridor, the GRM is 9-10, 10-11 times in Ocean Park and other
parts of the city and up to 12 times North of Wilshire. The GRM
can be significantly higher in a building with very low rents.
Cost per unit (CPU) is anywhere from $135,000-$150,000 per unit
and up depending on the size of the unit and also the location.
Price per square foot (PSF) is averaging from $145/psf and up
and again depends on location.
Unfortunately, we are seeing a lot of false marketing based on
market rents verses actual rents. This is great if you are a Seller
who can achieve a higher sales price based on this, however; many
buyers have been mislead based on rents that will probably not
be achievable in their lifetimes and lenders are pretty savvy
to these predications. Although these projections may reflect
market rents, they may never actually be achieved in a building
with tenants who are never going to move.
We are still seeing more vacancies than anticipated and not achieving
the projected market rates that we were looking forward to. The
demographics have changed dramatically as a result of market rents
and tenants who can afford to pay these rent levels are smart
enough to take advantage of the low interest rates and become
owners. Many owners are renting at lower rental rates in order
to get their units rented in lieu of the amount of available rental
inventory.
There is lots of talk and lots of confusion about the proposed
changes to the ELLIS Law and the actual process. There is not
enough talk about SMRPH (Santa Monica Residents Protection &
Homeownership). This is so vital to our property values and also
allows this new breed of tenants to become owners (and they want
to be.)
The cycle continues to be high for Sellers, how long this will
last remains to be seen. The real estate market has always been
tied to interest rates and questions arise as to how long rates
will remain at these levels. As always, it is a question of your
personal parameters in conjunction with the market conditions
that should determine what is right for you.

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